«Black Swans» of Forensic Psychiatry (unpredictable events affecting the conduct of forensic psychiatric examinations)

Abstract

The article is devoted to the unexpected and unpredictable events (decisions, actions) that have a significant impact on the forensic psychiatric expert practice and do not give in to scientific prognosis, analysis and control. These include sudden legislative changes, opinions and interpretations of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation, directives of heads of the criminal investigation agencies and other various circumstances up to the accidental coincidence of adverse factors. The American researcher of the Lebanese origin Nassim Nicholas Taleb has offered to call such phenomena "Black Swan events" or simply "black swans". “Black swans" of forensic psychiatry complicate the opportunities for rational organization of the state forensic expert institutions and its management based on scientific and methodical approaches. The article provides specific examples of "Black Swan events" that have had impact on the practice of forensic psychiatric examinations in the Soviet Union and present-day Russia.